Key Points

CO2 And Other Key Air Pollutants Have Consistently Declined In The U.S. At The Same Time The Use Of Natural Gas Has Increased And The Economy Has Grown

• [CHART] As natural gas increases, pollution goes down: From 2005 to 2016, carbon dioxide emissions declined 13 percent and several other major pollutants also declined significantly at the same time natural gas use increased 25 percent.
• Fewer emissions than other fuels: Natural gas emits far less carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) than other traditional fuels when burned, and emits virtually no sulfur dioxide (SO2) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).
• [CHART] Increased natural gas has allowed the U.S. to reduce emissions while growing the economy: “Increased use of natural gas — made possible by advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies —has allowed the United States to lead all major industrialized countries in carbon reductions this century, while growing its economy significantly, a previously unheard of decoupling trend.”
• Supporting the lowest emissions levels since 2005: According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, “The underlying energy consumption trends that resulted in these changes—mainly because more electricity has been generated from natural gas than from other fossil fuels—have helped to lower the U.S. emissions level since 2005 because natural gas is a less carbon-intensive fuel.”
• [CHART] Supporting significant reductions in other pollutants: Since 1990, U.S. emissions of key air pollutants have all declined significantly, including Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) by 88%; Carbon Monoxide (CO) by 67%; and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) by 59%.
• “The cleanliness shale gas delivers is intrinsic”: University of California-Berkeley Professor of Physics Richard Muller: “The cleanliness shale gas delivers is intrinsic … shale gas results in a 400- fold reduction of PM2.5, a 4,000-fold reduction in sulphur dioxide, a 70-fold reduction in nitrous oxides (NOx), and more than a 30-fold reduction in mercury.”
• [CHART] Significant reductions in sulphur dioxide emissions: From 2005 to 2017, U.S. SO2 emissions declined 82 percent at the same time natural gas consumption increased 25 percent and natural gas-fired electricity generation increased 81 percent.
• [CHART] Significant reductions in fine particulate matter emissions: From 2005 to 2017, U.S. PM2.5 emissions declined 32 percent, while atmospheric concentrations decreased approximately 40 percent “and can be largely credited to natural gas.”
• “Shale gas is a wonderful gift that has arrived just in time”: University of California-Berkeley Professor of Physics Richard Muller: “For shale gas is a wonderful gift that has arrived just in time. It can not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also reduce a deadly pollution known as PM2.5 that is currently killing over three million people each year, primarily in the developing world.”
• [CHART] Significant reductions in nitrous oxide emissions: Natural gas also emits less nitrogen oxide than other fuels, which has contributed to NOx emissions declining 49 percent since 2005, and, subsequently, ozone levels, which have declined 22 percent since 2005.
• Significant reductions in methane emissions: From 2005 to 2017, “natural gas system methane emissions … declined 3.5 percent” and “overall U.S. methane emissions have decreased 4.5 percent.”
• “A minimal impact on global warming and coming nowhere close to negating natural gas’ climate benefits”: “Natural gas emissions from U.S. natural gas development are having a minimal impact on global warming and coming nowhere close to negating natural gas’ climate benefits.”

Due To The Increased Use Of Natural Gas, The U.S. Leads The World In Reducing CO2 Emissions

• [CHART] Leading the world: In 2017, the U.S. led the world in reducing CO2 emissions—“the ninth time in this century that the US has had the largest decline in emissions in the world.”
• “Thank the underground oceans of America’s natural gas”: Mark Perry of the American Enterprise Institute: “For that impressive ‘greening’ of America, we can thank the underground oceans of America’s natural gas that are now accessible because of the revolutionary, advanced drilling and extraction technologies of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal/directional drilling.”
• Most emissions come from China and India: The largest increase in carbon emissions in 2017 came from China (1.6% and 119 tons), a reversal from the past three years when the largest increases in emissions came from India. In 2017, “China and India accounted for nearly half of the increase in global carbon emissions.”

U.S. Progress On Cleaner Air Is Offset By Asian Air Pollution That Drifts To The Western U.S.

• Smog levels rise in the Western U.S. due to Asian pollution: A 2017 study found that “The U.S. is producing less air pollution, but smog levels are still rising in the western U.S. because of pollutants released in Asian countries that then drift over the Pacific Ocean.”
• “The major driver” of rising ozone levels: Scientists found Asian air pollution contributed as much as 65 percent of an increase in Western ozone in recent years. The study concluded that the spike in man-made emissions in Asia “is the major driver” of the rise in ozone levels in the western U.S. for both spring and summer in recent decades.

The Reductions In CO2 Emissions From Increased Use Of Natural Gas Are Greater Than Reductions Attributed To Renewables

• [CACSmog CHART] U.S. CO2 savings attributable to increased natural gas greater than renewables: Since 2004, the U.S. CO2 savings attributable to increased natural gas has been consistently greater than the savings by using non-carbon energy sources, like renewables.
• All without Kyoto or cap-and-trade: Natural gas-fired electricity generation has helped the U.S. drop “power sector carbon emissions to their lowest levels since 1988”—all without “ratifying the Kyoto Protocol or adopting cap-and-trade legislation.”
• [CHART] CO2 emissions already at the Clean Power Plan’s 2025 target: “The clearest means by which to reduce CO2 emissions has been to reduce the cost of generating electricity with less CO2-emitting fuels” like natural gas. In fact, in 2017, estimated CO2 emission levels were already at the Clean Power Plan’s 2025 target.
• “Because of the private sector”: United Nations Energy Programme Chief Erik Solheim: “In all likelihood, the United States will live up to its Paris commitment, not because of the White House, but because of the private sector.”
• “An important reason for a reduction of GHG emissions in the United States”: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): “The rapid deployment of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technologies … is an important reason for a reduction of GHG emissions in the United States.”
• Hydraulic fracturing has actually helped renewable energy growth: A 2016 National Bureau of Economic Research report found hydraulic fracturing has actually helped renewable energy growth — finding that a one percent increase in the electrical generation share of natural gas is associated with a 0.88 percent increase in renewable generation capacity in the long term.
• “Renewables and fast-reacting fossil technologies appear as highly complementary”: National Bureau of Economic Research: “Our paper calls attention to the fact that renewables and fast-reacting fossil technologies appear as highly complementary and that they should be jointly installed to meet the goals of cutting emissions and ensuring a stable supply.”

CO2 And Other Key Air Pollutants Have Consistently Declined In The U.S. At The Same Time The Use Of Natural Gas Has Increased And The Economy Has Grown

From 2005 to 2016, carbon dioxide emissions declined 13 percent and several other major pollutants also declined significantly at the same time natural gas use increased 25 percent. “U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data show that natural gas consumption increased 25 percent from 2005 to 2016. During that same timespan, the most recent EPA Greenhouse Gas Inventory shows U.S. carbon dioxide emissions have declined 13 percent, while overall greenhouse gas emissions are at their lowest levels since 1992. The latest EPA data also show that sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and fine particulate matter emissions are down 82, 49 and 32 percent, respectively, since 2005.” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

(Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

“Natural gas emits far less carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) than other traditional fuels when burned, and emits virtually no sulfur dioxide (SO2) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).” “Natural gas emits far less carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxide (NOx) than other traditional fuels when burned, and emits virtually no sulfur dioxide (SO2) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). These facts led the International Energy Agency (IEA) to recently state that, ‘The emissions from natural gas combustion are well-known and show clear advantages for gas relative to other fossil fuels.’” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

International Energy Agency (IEA): “The role that natural gas can play in the future of global energy is inextricably linked to its ability to help address environmental problems. With concerns about air quality and climate change looming large, natural gas offers many potential benefits if it displaces more polluting fuels.” (Tim Gould and Christophe McGlade, “The environmental case for natural gas,” International Energy Agency, 10/23/17)

• International Energy Agency (IEA): “This is especially true given limits to how quickly renewable energy options can be scaled up and that cost-effective zero-carbon options can be harder to find in some parts of the energy system.” (Tim Gould and Christophe McGlade, “The environmental case for natural gas,” International Energy Agency, 10/23/17)

International Energy Agency (IEA): “The flexibility that natural gas brings to an energy system can also make it a good fit for the rise of variable renewables such as wind and solar PV.” (Tim Gould and Christophe McGlade, “The environmental case for natural gas,” International Energy Agency, 10/23/17)

“Increased use of natural gas — made possible by advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies —has allowed the United States to lead all major industrialized countries in carbon reductions this century, while growing its economy significantly, a previously unheard of decoupling trend.” “As the following EID infographic shows, increased use of natural gas — made possible by advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing technologies —has allowed the United States to lead all major industrialized countries in carbon reductions this century, while growing its economy significantly, a previously unheard of decoupling trend.” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

(Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, “The underlying energy consumption trends that resulted in these changes—mainly because more electricity has been generated from natural gas than from other fossil fuels—have helped to lower the U.S. emissions level since 2005 because natural gas is a less carbon-intensive fuel.” “EIA estimates that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions declined by 861 million metric tons (14%) from 2005 to 2017. In the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA projects that CO2 emissions will rise 1.8%, from 5,143 million metric tons in 2017 to 5,237 million metric tons in 2018, then remain virtually unchanged in 2019. In 2019, energy-related CO2 emissions will be about 13% lower than 2005 levels. From 2005 to 2017, coal-related CO2 emissions declined by 835 million metric tons (39%), and petroleum-related CO2 emissions declined by 289 million metric tons (11%). Natural gas emissions, however, increased by 285 million metric tons (24%) over that period. The underlying energy consumption trends that resulted in these changes—mainly because more electricity has been generated from natural gas than from other fossil fuels—have helped to lower the U.S. emissions level since 2005 because natural gas is a less carbon-intensive fuel than either coal or petroleum.” (“U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions expected to rise slightly in 2018, remain flat in 2019,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2/8/18)

In 2017, the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated, “The US power sector has led the world in cutting CO2 emissions since 2008, thanks largely to natural gas… Emissions in the United States last year were at their lowest levels since 1992, a period during which the economy grew by 80%.” “IEA stated in 2017 that: ‘The US power sector has led the world in cutting CO2 emissions since 2008, thanks largely to natural gas… Emissions in the United States last year were at their lowest levels since 1992, a period during which the economy grew by 80%.’” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

Since 1990, U.S. emissions of key air pollutants have all declined significantly, including Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) by 88%; Carbon Monoxide (CO) by 67%; and Nitrogen Oxides (NOx) by 59%. “Emissions of key air pollutants continue to decline from 1990 levels: Carbon Monoxide (CO),  67%; Ammonia (NH3),  22%; Nitrogen Oxides (NOx),  59%; Direct Particulate Matter 2.5 microns (PM2.5),  30%; Direct Particulate Matter 10 microns (PM10),  25%; Sulfur Dioxide (SO2),  88%; Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC), 42%. In addition, from 1990 to 2014 emissions of air toxics declined by 68 percent, largely driven by federal and state implementation of stationary and mobile source regulations, and technological advancements from American innovators.” (“Our Nation’s Air,” Environmental Protection Agency, 2019)

(“Our Nation’s Air,” Environmental Protection Agency, 2019)

“Between 1970 and 2018, the combined emissions of the six common pollutants (PM2.5 and PM10, SO2, NOx, VOCs, CO and Pb) dropped by 74 percent. This progress occurred while the U.S. economy continued to grow, Americans drove more miles and population and energy use increased.” (“Our Nation’s Air,” Environmental Protection Agency, 2019)

(“Our Nation’s Air: Air Quality Improves As America Grows, Status And Trends Through 2018,” Environmental Protection Agency, 6/19)

International Energy Agency (IEA): “The edge of natural gas over other combustible fuels is reinforced when considering emissions of the main air pollutants, including fine particulate matter (PM2.5), sulfur oxides, mainly sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX).” “The emissions from natural gas combustion are well-known and show clear advantages for gas relative to other fossil fuels. CO2 emissions (per unit of energy produced) from gas are around 40% lower than coal and around 20% lower than oil. The edge of natural gas over other combustible fuels is reinforced when considering emissions of the main air pollutants, including fine particulate matter (PM2.5), sulfur oxides, mainly sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX).” (Tim Gould and Christophe McGlade, “The environmental case for natural gas,” International Energy Agency, 10/23/17)

• International Energy Agency (IEA): “These three pollutants are responsible for the most widespread impacts of air pollution, according to the WEO Special Report, Energy and Air Pollution 2016.” (Tim Gould and Christophe McGlade, “The environmental case for natural gas,” International Energy Agency, 10/23/17)

University of California-Berkeley Professor of Physics Richard Muller: “The cleanliness shale gas delivers is intrinsic … shale gas results in a 400- fold reduction of PM2.5, a 4,000-fold reduction in sulphur dioxide, a 70-fold reduction in nitrous oxides (NOx), and more than a 30-fold reduction in mercury.” “In the US, substitution of shale gas for coal power was driven in large part by the fact that old coal plants needed to be retrofitted with expensive scrubbers; it was often cheaper to decommission them and build a new combined cycle gas plants instead. The cleanliness shale gas delivers is intrinsic. Compared to coal, shale gas results in a 400- fold reduction of PM2.5, a 4,000-fold reduction in sulphur dioxide, a 70-fold reduction in nitrous oxides (NOx), and more than a 30-fold reduction in mercury. [EIA 1999, EIA 2009]. As a result of this coal-to-gas transition, over the last 15 years, the electric power derived from coal in the US has dropped by 1/3, replaced by shale gas power. This reduction, in turn, is responsible for much of the unanticipated drop in US greenhouse gas emissions during that same period. [Hausfather, 2013].” (“Why Every Serious Environmentalist Should Favour Fracking,” Richard A. Muller And Elizabeth A. Muller, 2013)

“EIA notes that natural gas ‘produces virtually no SO2 emissions and negligible levels of PM2.5,’ which is reflected in the fact that U.S. SO2 emissions have declined 82 percent since 2005 at the same time natural gas consumption has increased 25 percent and natural gas-fired electricity generation has increased 81 percent.” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

(Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

“U.S. PM2.5 emissions have declined 32 percent since 2005, while atmospheric concentrations have decreased approximately 40 percent … and can be largely credited to natural gas.” “U.S. PM2.5 emissions have declined 32 percent since 2005, while atmospheric concentrations have decreased approximately 40 percent. Similar to the SO2 emission reductions discussed earlier, the significance of these reductions really can’t be overstated and can be largely credited to natural gas. EPA’s website notes that PM2.5 is a byproduct of chemical reactions between a number of pollutants, most notably nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxides, and present a myriad of health and environmental challenges.” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

(Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

University of California-Berkeley Professor of Physics Richard Muller: “For shale gas is a wonderful gift that has arrived just in time. It can not only reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but also reduce a deadly pollution known as PM2.5 that is currently killing over three million people each year, primarily in the developing world.” (“Why Every Serious Environmentalist Should Favour Fracking,” Richard A. Muller And Elizabeth A. Muller, 2013)

“PM2.5 levels are at extremely dangerous levels in much of the world, especially compared to North America, where use of clean-burning natural gas has significantly reduced the pollutant, literally saving lives.” “The sobering reality of Muller’s latter statement is illustrated in the following interactive map from the State of Global Air/2018 report that was released this week, showing PM2.5 levels are at extremely dangerous levels in much of the world, especially compared to North America, where use of clean-burning natural gas has significantly reduced the pollutant, literally saving lives.” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

(Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

“In addition to emitting virtually no SO2 or PM2.5, natural gas also emits less than a quarter of the nitrogen oxide of coal, which has contributed to NOx emissions declining 49 percent since 2005, according to the most recent EPA data.” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

(Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

“This data confirms an inconvenient reality for the ‘Keep It In the Ground’ movement: the shale gas boom has significantly reduced NOx emissions and, subsequently, ozone levels, which have declined 22 percent since 2005.” “Anti-fracking activists have repeatedly claimed that oil and natural gas development has led to increases in ozone. But this data confirms an inconvenient reality for the ‘Keep It In the Ground’ movement: the shale gas boom has significantly reduced NOx emissions and, subsequently, ozone levels, which have declined 22 percent since 2005.” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

“No Fewer Than 17 Studies Based On Actual Oil And Natural Gas Site Measurements Show Emissions Are Protective Of Human Health.” “Unable to refute this overwhelming evidence of natural gas’ contributions to improved air quality on a large scale in the U.S., many ‘Keep It In the Ground’ activists continue to insist that local emissions from oil and natural gas production sites trump these air quality improvements. But that argument has been debunked as well, as no fewer than 17 studies based on actual oil and natural gas site measurements show emissions are protective of human health.” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

“The most comprehensive of these studies, a 2017 Colorado Department of Health and Environment health assessment based on 10,000 air samples from parts of the state with ‘substantial’ oil and gas operations, concluded: ‘[T]he risk of harmful health effects is low for residents living [near] oil and gas operations,’ and that ‘results from exposure and health effect studies do not indicate the need for immediate public health action.’” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

From 2005 to 2017, “natural gas system methane emissions … declined 3.5 percent” and “overall U.S. methane emissions have decreased 4.5 percent.” “But what about methane emissions that the ‘Keep It In the Ground’ movement claims are on the rise, wiping out natural gas’ climate benefits? The latest EPA GHGI shows that natural gas system methane emissions have declined 3.5 percent since 2005, while overall U.S. methane emissions have decreased 4.5 percent.” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

“Furthermore, recent EPA and Global Carbon Project data show that U.S. oil and natural gas system methane emissions account for just 1.4 percent of overall global methane emissions.” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

“A recent Gas Technology Institute’s Center for Methane Research report also finds that U.S. natural gas system methane emissions account for just 0.20 percent of global climate forcing.” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

• “Put another way, natural gas emissions from U.S. natural gas development are having a minimal impact on global warming and coming nowhere close to negating natural gas’ climate benefits.” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

Due To The Increased Use Of Natural Gas, The U.S. Leads The World In Reducing CO2 Emissions

In 2017, the U.S. led the world in reducing CO2 emissions—“the ninth time in this century that the US has had the largest decline in emissions in the world.” “From the June 2018 BP Statistical Review of Global Energy (67th edition) here are some details on C02 emissions in 2017: … 2. Declines in CO2 emissions in 2017 were led by the US (-0.5% and 42 million tons, see chart above).  This is the ninth time in this century that the US has had the largest decline in emissions in the world. This also was the third consecutive year that emissions in the US declined, though the fall was the smallest over the last three years.” (Mark Perry, “Chart Of The Day: In 2017, US Had Largest Decline In CO2 Emissions In The World For 9th Time This Century, American Enterprise Institute, 7/12/18; “BP Statistical Review of World Energy,” BP, 6/18)

(Mark Perry, “Chart Of The Day: In 2017, US Had Largest Decline In CO2 Emissions In The World For 9th Time This Century, American Enterprise Institute, 7/12/18; “BP Statistical Review of World Energy,” BP, 6/18)

In 2017, carbon emissions “from energy use from the US are the lowest since 1992, the year that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) came into existence.” “3. Carbon emissions from energy use from the US are the lowest since 1992, the year that the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) came into existence. The next largest decline was in Ukraine (-10.1% and 28.1 tons).” (Mark Perry, “Chart Of The Day: In 2017, US Had Largest Decline In CO2 Emissions In The World For 9th Time This Century, American Enterprise Institute, 7/12/18; “BP Statistical Review of World Energy,” BP, 6/18)

Mark Perry of the American Enterprise Institute: “For that impressive ‘greening’ of America, we can thank the underground oceans of America’s natural gas that are now accessible because of the revolutionary, advanced drilling and extraction technologies of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal/directional drilling.” “MP: For that impressive ‘greening’ of America, we can thank the underground oceans of America’s natural gas that are now accessible because of the revolutionary, advanced drilling and extraction technologies of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal/directional drilling, and are increasingly displacing coal for the nation’s electricity generation.” (Mark Perry, “Chart Of The Day: In 2017, US Had Largest Decline In CO2 Emissions In The World For 9th Time This Century, American Enterprise Institute, 7/12/18)

“The largest increase in carbon emissions in 2017 came from China (1.6% and 119 tons), a reversal from the past three years when the largest increases in emissions came from India. China’s emissions in 2017 were 0.3% higher than the previous peak in 2014.” “4. The largest increase in carbon emissions in 2017 came from China (1.6% and 119 tons), a reversal from the past three years when the largest increases in emissions came from India. China’s emissions in 2017 were 0.3% higher than the previous peak in 2014. China has had the world’s largest increments in carbon emission every year this century except in four years – 2000 and between 2014-16. The next highest increment came from India where emissions rose by 4.4% (93.2 million tons, see chart), though lower than its 10-year average (6% p.a.).” (Mark Perry, “Chart Of The Day: In 2017, US Had Largest Decline In CO2 Emissions In The World For 9th Time This Century, American Enterprise Institute, 7/12/18; “BP Statistical Review of World Energy,” BP, 6/18)

In 2017, “China and India accounted for nearly half of the increase in global carbon emissions.” “5. Together, China and India accounted for nearly half (212.2 million tons) of the increase in global carbon emissions (426.4 million tons).” (Mark Perry, “Chart Of The Day: In 2017, US Had Largest Decline In CO2 Emissions In The World For 9th Time This Century, American Enterprise Institute, 7/12/18; “BP Statistical Review of World Energy,” BP, 6/18)

In 2017, “EU emissions were also up (1.5% and 42.4 million tons, see chart) with just Spain accounting for 44% of the increase in EU emissions.” “EU emissions were also up (1.5% and 42.4 million tons, see chart) with just Spain accounting for 44% of the increase in EU emissions. Among other EU members, UK and Denmark reported the lowest carbon emissions in their history.” (Mark Perry, “Chart Of The Day: In 2017, US Had Largest Decline In CO2 Emissions In The World For 9th Time This Century, American Enterprise Institute, 7/12/18; “BP Statistical Review of World Energy,” BP, 6/18)

U.S. Progress On Cleaner Air Is Offset By Asian Air Pollution That Drifts To The Western U.S.

A 2017 study found that “The U.S. is producing less air pollution, but smog levels are still rising in the western U.S. because of pollutants released in Asian countries that then drift over the Pacific Ocean.” “The U.S. is producing less air pollution, but smog levels are still rising in the western U.S. because of pollutants released in Asian countries that then drift over the Pacific Ocean. Researchers say their findings show the importance of a global approach to preserving air quality.” (Bill Chappell, “Smog In Western U.S. Starts Out As Pollution In Asia, Researchers Say,” NPR, 3/3/17)

“‘Scientists found Asian air pollution contributed as much as 65 percent of an increase in Western ozone in recent years,’ NPR’s Rob Schmitz reports from Shanghai. ‘China and India, where many consumer products are manufactured, are the worst offenders.’” (Bill Chappell, “Smog In Western U.S. Starts Out As Pollution In Asia, Researchers Say,” NPR, 3/3/17)

• “The problem, scientists say, is that Asian countries’ emissions of nitrogen oxides — which sunlight then breaks down in reactions that produce ozone — have tripled since 1990.” (Bill Chappell, “Smog In Western U.S. Starts Out As Pollution In Asia, Researchers Say,” NPR, 3/3/17)
• “When those harmful gases circulate to North America, they offset gains in U.S. air quality that have come from cutting nitrogen oxide emissions by 50 percent.” (Bill Chappell, “Smog In Western U.S. Starts Out As Pollution In Asia, Researchers Say,” NPR, 3/3/17)

The study concluded that the spike in man-made emissions in Asia “is the major driver” of the rise in ozone levels in the western U.S. for both spring and summer in recent decades. “They concluded that the spike in man-made emissions in Asia “is the major driver” of the rise in ozone levels in the western U.S. for both spring and summer in recent decades. The researchers cited data that ranges from Joshua Tree National Park in Southern California to observations in Denver, Colo., and the eastern U.S. According to the EPA, high levels of ground-level ozone “can be harmful to people, animals, crops, and other materials.” The agency adds, ‘Ozone can aggravate asthma, and can inflame and damage cells that line your lungs.’” (Bill Chappell, “Smog In Western U.S. Starts Out As Pollution In Asia, Researchers Say,” NPR, 3/3/17)

• The study authors concluded that “the increase in Asian anthropogenic emissions is the major driver of rising background O3 over the WUS for both spring and summer in the past decades …” “We conclude that the increase in Asian anthropogenic emissions is the major driver of rising background O3 over the WUS for both spring and summer in the past decades, with a lesser contribution from methane increases over this period. The tripling of Asian NOx emissions since 1990 con- tributes up to 65 % of modeled springtime background O3 increases (0.3–0.5 ppb yr−1 ) over the WUS, outpacing O3 decreases resulting from 50% US NOx emission controls (≤ 0.1 ppb yr−1 ; Table 2 and Fig. 10). Springtime O3 ob- served in the Denver metropolitan area has increased at a rate similar to remote rural sites (Fig. 17b). Mean spring- time O3 above the WUS is projected to increase by ∼ 10 ppb from 2010 to 2030 under the RCP8.5 global change scenario but to remain constant throughout 2010 to 2050 under the RCP4.5 scenario (Fig. 14). As NOx emissions in China con- tinue to decline in response to efforts to improve air quality (Krotkov et al., 2016; Liu et al., 2016), rising global methane and NOx emissions in the tropical countries (e.g., India) in Asia, where O3 production is more efficient, may become more important in the coming decades. A global perspective is necessary when designing a strategy to meet US O3 air quality objectives.” (Meiyun Lin et al, “US Surface Ozone Trends And Extremes From 1980 To 2014: Quantifying The Roles Of Rising Asian Emissions, Domestic Controls, Wildfires, And Climate,” Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 3/1/17)

The Reductions In CO2 Emissions From Increased Use Of Natural Gas Are Greater Than Reductions Attributed To Renewables

Since 2004, the U.S. CO2 savings attributable to increased natural gas has been consistently greater than the savings by using non-carbon energy sources, like renewables. “A recent EIA graphic shows how the U.S. CO2 savings attributable to increased natural gas use is about 72 percent greater than has been saved the savings by using non-carbon energy sources, like renewables.” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

(“U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions, 2018,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, Released 11/14/19)

Natural gas-fired electricity generation has helped the U.S. drop “power sector carbon emissions to their lowest levels since 1988”—all without “ratifying the Kyoto Protocol or adopting cap-and-trade legislation.” “This can be traced to the fact that natural gas-fired electricity generation has increased 81 percent since 2005, dropping power sector carbon emissions to their lowest levels since 1988. This is the primary reason the United States has achieved these emissions reductions without ratifying the Kyoto Protocol or adopting cap-and-trade legislation.” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

“In fact, the U.S. has already achieved the 2025 emission reduction targets laid out in the now-repealed Clean Power Plan.” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

“The clearest means by which to reduce CO2 emissions has been to reduce the cost of generating electricity with less CO2-emitting fuels” like natural gas. “Before considering the future, it is worth examining just how far we’ve already come without any federal CO2 regulation (for existing power plants) in the U.S. Figure 1 illustrates historical CO2 emissions and natural gas prices from 2005 through 2017 (estimated). During that period, emissions have declined from nearly 2.7 billion tons to approximately 1.9 billion tons (∼30%), while revealing a strong link to natural gas prices. To be sure, while other factors (such as renewable energy incentives) also had an impact, the clearest means by which to reduce CO2 emissions has been to reduce the cost of generating electricity with less CO2-emitting fuels (i.e., substituting natural gas for coal).” (Jeffrey J. Anderson, David Rode, Haibo Zhai, and Paul Fischbeck, “Will We Always Have Paris? CO2 Reduction without the Clean Power Plan,” Environmental Science & Technology, 2/15/18)

In fact, in 2017, estimated CO2 emission levels were already at the Clean Power Plan’s 2025 target. “So successful have market forces been under the existing regulatory framework to date that estimated 2017 CO2 emission levels are already at the CPP’s 2025 target (albeit without accounting for electricity demand growth between 2017 and 2025), well exceeding the AEO’s own Reference Case projections for 2025.” (Jeffrey J. Anderson, David Rode, Haibo Zhai, and Paul Fischbeck, “Will We Always Have Paris? CO2 Reduction without the Clean Power Plan,” Environmental Science & Technology, 2/15/18)

(Jeffrey J. Anderson, David Rode, Haibo Zhai, and Paul Fischbeck, “Will We Always Have Paris? CO2 Reduction without the Clean Power Plan,” Environmental Science & Technology, 2/15/18)

United Nations Energy Programme Chief Erik Solheim: “In all likelihood, the United States will live up to its Paris commitment, not because of the White House, but because of the private sector.” “And despite the Trump administration’s stated intent of withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement, United Nations Energy Programme Chief Erik Solheim recently said: ‘In all likelihood, the United States will live up to its Paris commitment, not because of the White House, but because of the private sector.’” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): “The rapid deployment of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technologies … is an important reason for a reduction of GHG emissions in the United States.” “A key development since AR4 is the rapid deployment of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling technologies, which has increased and diversified the gas supply and allowed for a more extensive switching of power and heat production from coal to gas (IEA, 2012b); this is an important reason for a reduction of GHG emissions in the United States.” (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fifth Assessment Report, 2014)

• “The IPCC was created to provide policymakers with regular scientific assessments on climate change, its implications and potential future risks, as well as to put forward adaptation and mitigation options.” (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Accessed 9/17/20)

A 2016 National Bureau of Economic Research report found hydraulic fracturing has actually helped renewable energy growth — finding that a one percent increase in the electrical generation share of natural gas is associated with a 0.88 percent increase in renewable generation capacity in the long term. “To be clear, renewables and other non-carbon energy sources have contributed to these emission declines as well. However, it is important to note that natural gas is also an important part of the renewable discussion, as it provides necessary backup for intermittent energy sources such as wind and solar. A 2016 National Bureau of Economic Research report found fracking has actually helped renewable energy growth — finding that a one percent increase in the electrical generation share of ‘fast reacting fossil technologies’ (translation: natural gas) is associated with a 0.88 percent increase in renewable generation capacity in the long term.’ In other words, renewable electricity generation has grown at roughly the same rate as natural gas-fired electrical generation over the past two-plus decades, according to the report.” (Seth Whitehead, “As Earth Day Nears, Latest Data Show U.S. Air Quality Continues To Improve, Thanks To Shale Gas, Energy In Depth, 4/19/18)

National Bureau of Economic Research: “Our paper calls attention to the fact that renewables and fast-reacting fossil technologies appear as highly complementary and that they should be jointly installed to meet the goals of cutting emissions and ensuring a stable supply.” “The evidence presented here supports the conclusion that to date FRF technologies have enabled RE diffusion by providing reliable and dispatchable back-up capacity to hedge against variability of supply. Our paper calls attention to the fact that renewables and fast-reacting fossil technologies appear as highly complementary and that they should be jointly installed to meet the goals of cutting emissions and ensuring a stable supply. In this respect, our analysis complements recent attempts to systematically assess the grid-level system costs for different technologies. Our long-run estimations of the relation between FRF and RE point indeed to the high indirect costs of the latter.” (Elena Verdolini, Francesco Vona, and David Popp, “Bridging The Gap: Do Fast Reacting Fossil Technologies Facilitate Renewable Energy Diffusion?,” National Bureau Of Economic Research, 7/16)

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